Tag Archives: Black Swan

18Mar/20

COVID-19 Black Swan Colliding with Your Supply Chain?

By: Daniel R. Matlis, President, Axendia, Inc.

Globalization and outsourcing have increased the volume of geographically dispersed partners, facilities, and suppliers in the Life-Science global supply chain. This has resulted in increased supply chain risk and decreased predictability due to variability and complexity and increasing the impact of ‘Black Swan’ events on the healthcare ecosystem.

In 2010 we started preaching about some of the risks associated with globalization, outsourcing and single sourcing in Life-Sciences (See Research Report Achieving Global Supply Chain Visibility, Control & Collaboration in Life‐Sciences: “Regulatory Necessity, Business Imperative”).

While many analysts focused on the rewards of these practices, Axendia took a holistic risk-based approach.

Globalization and Outsourcing allowed the COVID-19 Back Swan to Take the Crown:

In his book “The Black Swan: The impact of the highly improbable,” Nassim Taleb defines a ‘Black Swan’ as an event characterized by rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective (though not prospective) predictability.

Corona (Latin for Crown) is likely the largest Black Swan event to affect the Life-Science supply chain in a generation.

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